Despite the current downward blip in the U.S. electric vehicle market, airports, assisted by the federal government, are laying the groundwork to be able to accommodate large EV rental fleets.
"We're not trying to predict when the EV transition will happen or what percentage of cars will be EVs by the end of the decade," said Dallas-Fort Worth Airport CEO Sean Donohue. "But even if the EV transition turns down, it's our view it is still going to happen, and now is the time for us to be prepared for it."
DFW projects its power needs will double by the end of the decade, with electrification of car rental fleets being a key driver. It is one of 10 airports taking part in Phase 2 of a National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) program called Athena Zev that is geared toward helping airports develop optimal strategies for meeting EV charging needs.
The $4.3 million Phase Two has kicked off even though growth projections in the U.S. EV rental market are being adjusted down amid a broader scale-back of EV production plans by U.S. automakers.
EV cars currently comprise approximately 3% of total of U.S. car rental company fleets, according to Greg Scott, spokesman for the American Car Rental Association.
Hertz, which had reached approximately 10% EV fleet penetration, recently said it would shed approximately 20,000 EVs due to weaker-than-expected demand and high collision expenses. The company had previously set a target of 25% EV penetration by the end of this year, but now it says it will forge ahead at a slower pace and lay the groundwork by expanding charging infrastructure, among other items.
Charging infrastructure, however, is a challenge that airports and car rental companies will have to meet collaboratively.
To efficiently operate EV fleets, car rental companies require supercharging capabilities so that they can turn around vehicles quickly, just as they do with gas-powered cars and trucks.
Monte Lunacek
According to Monte Lunacek, the NREL senior data scientist overseeing the Athena Zev program, charging just 500 EVs in a day can require the same amount of power as an entire airport terminal. LAX, he noted for context, sees 4,000 to 7,000 rental cars returned in a typical day. At DFW, the car rental fleet is 22,000-strong.
Over the course of this year and next, the Athena Zev program will generate data-driven models that will help estimate the charging capacity needed for car rental fleets at DFW and LAX as well as JFK and LaGuardia in New York and airports in Phoenix, Seattle, Denver, Salt Lake City and Indianapolis as their fleets grow. San Francisco Airport might also participate in the program.
The models will also guide airports on how they can best deploy and utilize solar energy and energy storage technology.
Rental company EV fleet estimates will be key data points. But the models will also account for factors such as local climates and local utility rate structures to identify optimal methods for flattening energy usage spikes during peak hours by utilizing stored power during low-usage times.
In developing the models, Lunacek said, NREL will run hundreds of thousands of simulations geared ultimately toward helping airports identify the combination of software and energy hardware that will meet rental car charging needs with the lowest investment and operating costs.
In the latter half of Athena Zev's Phase 2, NREL will also physically test software and hardware solutions that are under consideration by airports to make sure they are compatible; for example, a specific charger technology coupled with an energy storage solution and the software that is designed to guide operational decisions.
Lunacek said the Athena Zev project remains as important as ever, even accounting for the current EV pullback among car rental companies.
"Consumer demand is going to continue to rise for EVs. They are not going anywhere, and the decision to electrify has been made," he said, referencing the medium and long term.
Donohue agrees. As part of DFW's work with NREL, the airport is developing plans to build a solar-powered microgrid that would handle its future EV rental charging requirements.
"You make some assumptions, and it becomes clear pretty fast that our needs will double by the end of the decade," he said.