DUBAI -- Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production will triple this year, reaching approximately 500 million gallons, according to IATA's latest estimate.
However, that figure would still amount to just 0.5% of the aviation industry's fuel needs. And for the airline industry to achieve its goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, production must increase 1,000-fold, IATA chief economist and senior vice president of sustainability Marie Owens Thomsen said at the trade group's annual general meeting in Dubai on Sunday.
Achieving that target, Thomsen said, isn't impossible. Wind and solar energy ramped up at a similar pace in recent decades. Annual investment would need to be approximately $150 billion.
"The world has achieved these types of challenges many times in the past," Thomsen said.
IATA expects SAF, which under the U.S. government definition must offer emissions reductions of at least 50% compared to traditional kerosene-based jet fuel, to account for 65% of the carbon reductions the industry must achieve to meet net zero.
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the aviation arm of the United Nations, has set a goal of reducing aviation emissions by 5% globally by 2030.
IATA on Sunday revised downward its 2030 SAF production estimate based on announced projects. The trade group had earlier projected that announced projects would enable SAF production to increase by a factor of more than 40 by 2030 compared to this year. But an appraisal of those announced projects led IATA to reduce its 2030 capacity forecast by 19%.
Currently, 140 SAF refineries are targeted to be online by 2030.
To achieve ICAO's 2030 goal, IATA says that SAF would need to account for 27% of renewable-fuel production capacity globally. Right now, it accounts for just 3% with other technologies, such as renewable diesel, being produced at much higher volumes.
IATA renewed its call Monday for governments to do more to incentivize SAF production, including via policies designed to shift production at renewable-fuel facilities toward aviation.
Doing so would make sense as drivers shift toward electric vehicles, said Hemant Mistry, IATA's energy transition director.